World Markets Live - February 6 - CNBC Live Events

CNBC Live Events

World Markets Live - February 6

We’ll be updating you throughout the day with essential breaking news, data alerts, earnings reports and all the major market movements.

    The race is on: Le Pen and Macron launch their bids to run France

    CNBCThe two major contenders in the race to run France have launched their presidential campaigns.
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    Banking on gold. Randgold hikes its payout by over 50 percent as it reports another year of record production and an improved profit. But the CEO tells this show it's been a tricky 12 months.
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    Douglas Webber, professor of political science at INSEAD, answers whether or not Francois Fillon can stay in the race for the French presidency.

    No one really knows the answer to this question right now, I’m not sure if even Fillon knows. I’ll imagine we’ll know more after he meets MPs from his own party tomorrow and perhaps on Wednesday we’ll actually find out. But if I was asked to hazard a guess today I’d say he’ll not be able to stay in the race.

    Webber says the scandal has cost Fillon support and he would be unlikely to win the second round of the presidential run off.

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    Let's take a look at the European banks, some of which are trading sharply lower this morning:
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    Douglas Webber, professor of political science at INSEAD, predicts Marine le Pen will not win the second round of the presidential run off.

    Right now I would think that in the second round running against Macron she wouldn’t win. If by any chance Macron shouldn’t make it and Fillon should survive, again in the second round against Fillon she might have a slightly bigger chance than up until now of actually becoming the French president.

    Webber thinks Macron would defeat le Pen because he would have the support of the entire French left, the centre and a proportion of moderate conservatives.
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    A Qantas Dubai-Melbourne flight has been diverted to Singapore. We will keep you updated as we get more details:
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    Tim Gee, M&A partner at Baker McKenzie, discusses how the Chinese investment patterns have changed.

    I think you’ve seen a shift in policy in China, because up until a year or two ago you’d seen very direct state-sponsored investment in basic resources, so energy, mining, minerals, commodities.
    What’s driving Chinese outbound investment today are the private enterprises.

    Comment ()
    These are the top headlines this hour.

    • Banking on gold. Randgold hikes its payout by over 50 percent as it reports another year of record production and an improved profit. But the CEO tells CNBC it's been a tricky 12 months.
    • Over capacity, under pressure! Ryanair shares sink after earnings fall 8 percent in the third quarter, with overcapacity hurting ticket prices.
    • Republicans prepare to roll-back Dodd-Frank as the author of the post-crisis regulation tells CNBC the bill should be reviewed, but not thrown out all-together.
    • History in Houston! The New England Patriots complete a stunning comeback to beat the Atlanta Falcons and win Super Bowl 51
    Comment ()
    Randgold shares are rallying after fourth quarter net profit rose 76 percent. The gold miner proposed to increase its dividend 52 percent to 1 dollar per share. 

    Randgold said it had passed its net cash target of 500 million dollars. The company's chief executive told CNBC investors should have no doubt about the company's profitability

    Shares are up nearly 4 percent today. Here's a chart of the company's 7 day performance.

    Comment ()
    Ryanair is trading toward the bottom of the Stoxx 600 after it announced a fall in average winter fares, due to overcapacity in European aviation. 

    The airline warned of a challenging year ahead, citing Brexit as a concern for carriers with exposure to the pound.

    Ryanair reported an 8 percent drop in third quarter profits compared to last year.

    Mark Simpson, aviation analyst at Goodbody, says Ryanair delivers the ability to keep costs down.

    There is no better airline in the industry in terms of controlling costs. We saw that with some really good ex-fuel cost improvements and guidance of 4 percent decline this year.

    Ryanair delivers the ability to lower fares, encourage passengers to travel, because it just focuses on cost quarter by quarter and that’s what really sets it apart from the rest of the market.

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    Yields on French 10-year bonds are up 4 basis points today, around 17-month highs.

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    Shares in Electrolux have dropped to the bottom of the Stoxx 600 after the company announced its agreement to acquire Anova, a U.S. smart kitchen appliance company, for an up-front cash payment of $115 million. 

    The Swedish home appliance manufacturer is said to have interest in Anova due to the company's digital focus and direct-to-consumer business model. 

    The deal is subject to regulatory approvals, and is expected to be closed in the first quarter of 2017.

    Electrolux shares down 1.38 percent today, but over 30 days they are up 3.11 percent.

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    The first major German customer is suing Volkswagen over dieselgate. Fish distributor Deutsche See is suing the automaker for a reported 12 million euros for misrepresenting a fleet of vehicles it leased as environmentally friendly. 

    VW is facing multiple lawsuits from regulators, states, dealers and individual owners, but this case marks the first brought by a corporate client in its home market.

    Shares are down 0.6 percent today.

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    Barclays is restructuring to help ring-fence operations. The British bank says it has created a new standalone unit to support its retail and investment banking businesses, once they are formally separated.

    The overhaul is expected to affect most of the 10-thousand staff who work in Barclays' back offices operations. But the bank has not commented on possible job cuts or the cost of the restructuring.

    Barclays shares are up almost 1.7 percent today, and up nearly 1 percent over 7 days.

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    Slovenia's inflation picked up in January.

    The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices read at 1.5 percent year-on-year in January, versus 0.6 percent in December, according to the Stats Office.
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    An Ipsos Mori survey of top executives from over 100 of the biggest UK companies has revealed that 58 percent felt that the Brexit vote has had a negative impact on their business. 

    That's compared to just 11 percent who said the decision was positive, and 31 percent who said it had made no difference. The CEO of the market research company said there was "no sign" the economic upheaval felt by businesses would ease this year. 

    Meanwhile, the U.K. government's Brexit Bill, which gives Prime Minister Theresa May the authority to begin Britain's divorce from the EU, will return to the House of Commons this week for a final round of debates. 

    Britain's opposition Labour party is set to push for several amendments, with leader Jeremy Corbyn reportedly ready to impose a 3 line whip when MPs vote. Speaking to BBC radio, Corbyn suggested that front-benchers who defied the party's position may not be sacked, saying he was "a very lenient person."
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    Barry Gardiner, U.K. Shadow Secretary of State for International Trade, and Shadow Minister for International Climate Change, says tariffs being imposed following Brexit are a concern for business.

    The government must give real assurance on this point, because if tariffs do come in to play between ourselves and the rest of Europe, then our businesses are going to be at a real disadvantage in terms of their exports.

    Gardiner says the government must give assurance that their exporting to the single market will be tariff-free.
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    The legal battle is intensifying over President Trump's immigration order. Further court filings are expected today from both the government and the justice department over the policy. Meanwhile the President stepped up his criticism of the federal judge who blocked the travel ban on Friday.

    NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports on the latest from Florida, where President Trump spent the weekend at his Mar-a-Lago resort.

    by luke.graham

    Meanwhile, several American technology companies including Apple, Google and Uber have
    filed a legal brief opposing President Trump's immigration ban.
    Filed in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the ninth circuit, top tech firms argue the order "inflicts significant harm on American businesses.

    Nearly 100 companies have signed onto the brief. 
    Comment ()
    The Romanian government has reversed a decree, aimed at decriminalising some graft offences, following intense pressure and week-long mass protests. 

    The decree, which was proposed in a bid to alleviate pressure on the country's prison system, would have protected dozens of politicians from prosecution. 

    Hundreds of thousands of protestors took to the streets in what was the largest march since the downfall of former brutal dictator Nicolae Ceausescu. 
    Comment ()
    Francois Fillon will today hold a press conference at 3pm GMT to launch a counter-attack amid his collapsing poll ratings. That's according to sources close to the Republican presidential candidate. 

    Fillon has been hit by allegations he paid his wife large sums of money for work she did not do.  

    Meanwhile, French presidential frontrunners Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron held rallies in Lyon over the weekend, delivering starkly different messages on their vision for the country. 

    Officially launching her campaign, the Front National leader Le Pen promised a crackdown on foreigners and the forces of globalisation, telling her party faithful the upcoming election would decide "whether France can still be a free nation."
    Comment ()
    Speaking in Lyon, Marine Le Pen made a campaign pledge to hold a referendum on leaving the European Union, unless she can re-negotiate terms of membership.

    by luke.graham

    Comment ()
    Michael Hessel, political economy analyst at Absolute Strategy Research, says Marine Le Pen just doesn’t really have a chance in the second round, regardless of who she is up against. 

    There’s a couple of reasons for this. The Front Nationale is still toxic. There are still enough French people who would just never vote for Le Pen in the second round.

    In face when pollsters ask what they think of Le Pen and ask to rate people on a scale of 1 to 10, 60 percent put her between 1 and 3, so she’s really disliked.

    Hessel adds that most French people are attached to the European Union and the euro, both of which Le Pen regularly attacks.
    Comment ()
    It's been two hours since the European market open, so let's check in on which stocks are at the top and bottom of the Stoxx 600 index.

    DKSH is at the top after reporting strong full-year earnings. Net sales grew 4.5 percent in 2016 to 10.5 billion Swiss francs.


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    The Kremlin has asked for an apology from Fox News, after its host Bill O'Reilly said President Putin is a killer.

    The Kremlin says the comments are unacceptable and offensive. 

    The Kremlin added that it does not agree with President Trump's assessment that Iran is a terrorist state.
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    Scotland is heading for a fresh independence referendum when U.K. triggers Article 50 to leave the EU, according to a member of the Scottish Greens.

    The U.K. government is unwilling to consider Scottish proposals to shape Brexit seriously, the lawmaker told Reuters.
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    Morocco warns it may end economic cooperation with the European Union if implementation of a farm deal is not ensured.

    According to Reuters, Morocco says the current deal ensures thousands of jobs and could trigger migrant flows if ended.

    Morocco added it may shift business partnerships to Russia, China, Japan, India or other regions.
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    Gold prices are picking up at the start of the week. The boost is the result of the weaker dollar following mixed U.S. jobs data on Friday.

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    Oil prices are mixed today. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran, as well as OPEC supply cuts, are providing upward price pressure, while reports of increased U.S. oil rig activity and ample supply is weighing on oil prices.

    As a result, prices are currently down 0.2 percent on Brent crude.

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    Randgold shares are up more than 3 percent today, near the top of the Stoxx 600 index, following its latest results.

    AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould shares his thoughts on the stock.

    Randgold led the blue-chip board in early trading after full-year profits jumped by 38% and the dividend rose by 52% to $1 a share. 

    The group had the perfect mix of higher gold prices, record output and lower costs in 2016 while exploration programmes have continued to add reserves at Loulo-Gounkoto and Sofia and expand the group’s portfolio in Cote d'Ivoire

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    Fitch has affirmed Pakistan's credit rating at 'B' with a stable outlook for its economy, saying the country's economic outlook has brightened.

    Pakistan completed a three-year IMF Extended Fund Facility (EFF) in September 2016. The country has entered 12 IMF programmes since 1988, but this the first programme that it has completed. Under the program, reserves were strengthened, the fiscal deficit reduced and significant progress was made on structural reform.
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    Robin Winkler, strategist at Deutsche Bank, has published a report warning that Switzerland may come under focus from the Trump administration.

    The Trump administration has spoken out against alleged currency manipulation from China, Japan and Germany. Yet the country most at risk of meeting the Treasury's official criteria of currency manipulation is probably Switzerland. The risk of coming into US focus, perhaps as early as 2018, could add to the rationale for the SNB to gradually discontinue market intervention.

    Winkler says the U.S. could impost a 20 percent tariff on the country if it decided to retaliate.

    The SNB letting EUR/CHF fall toward parity to avoid frictions with the US may be the lesser evil for the Swiss export-oriented industry than incurring US retaliatory measures, and it could join the financial sector in demanding an exit from unconventional policy. If speculators also upped the pressure, continued intervention would become even costlier. Stay short EUR/CHF via options.
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    The merger of Solstad, Farstad and Deep Sea Supply makes for a good business case, says Norway's oil minister.

    The minister does not believe the merger will be a problem for competition, according to Reuters.
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    President Trump has taken to Twitter this morning to criticize polls produced by news organizations such as CNN.

    He' s followed it up with a tweet which claims opponents are out to "marginalize lies".

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    The dollar index is slightly stronger today, after falling in the past week. 

    Mixed jobs data from the U.S. knocked the currency last week, but the index is steadying today.

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    Don't forget to follow@CNBCi if you want the freshest CNBC headlines on your Twitter feed.

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    Paresh Davdra, CEO and Co-Founder of Xendpay analyses the effect of the weaker pound on the economy: 
    The economy has started to experience the effects of a weaker pound, as recent economic data points out the inflationary impacts of rising costs and revenue reassessments by major organizations. Even though the UK economy grew at a robust 2.2%, the real test here is the way forward – the current outlook, recently reassessed as 2.3% for 2017, hinges on the market’s reaction to political changes over the next few months. The economy has done well through the Brexit vote, however, a weaker pound is hurting SME’s and organizations that are on both side of the supply chain. 
    Though a weaker pound has benefits for the exports sector, the costs of domestic production and imports has risen. The rising costs will most likely be passed down from organizations to consumers which could squeeze consumer spending in the coming months. The consistency of the current situation does not seem likely as the pound is set to go through a whirlwind of changes in the next few weeks, how it adjusts after the process to exit the EU is triggered is something we have to wait and watch. 

    Comment ()
    The dollar may have come off the 14-year highs it's touched recently, but the greenback rally will likely soon catch a second wind, analysts said.

    The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, climbed as high as 103.82 at the beginning of January, but has since slipped as low as 99.233. The dollar index was trading around 95 at the beginning of October.
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    U.S. stock index futures pointed to a flat open Monday as traders focused on earnings after the best day of the new year for the Dow Jones industrial average in the previous session.

    On the earnings front, Hasbro reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue, and raised its quarterly dividend to 57 cents a share from 51 cents. 21st Century Fox, FMC and Maceirch are due to report after the market close.
    Comment ()
    A selection of stocks making moves before the U.S. open.

    Hasbro (HAS) – The toy maker earned an adjusted $1.64 per share for its latest quarter, well above estimates of $1.27.  Revenue beat forecasts and the company also raised its quarterly dividend to 57 cents per share from 51 cents.  Hasbro’s results were helped by holiday season demand for its Disney Princess and “Frozen”-themed dolls.

    FedEx (FDX) – The stock was upgraded to “outperform” from “market perform” at Raymond James, which has a price target of $210 compared to the current price of $188.21.  

    Tiffany (TIF) – Tiffany announced that Chief Executive Officer Frederic Cumenal is stepping down.  Cumenal is being replaced at the helm of the luxury goods retailer by chairman Michael Kowalski, who had preceded Cumenal as CEO.

    Walt Disney (DIS) – Disney CEO Robert Iger may extend his term in that job for a third time, according to the Wall Street Journal.  Iger is scheduled to retire in 16 months, but the paper notes there’s no successor in sight following the departure of former chief operating officer Tom Staggs last year.

    Toyota (TM) – Toyota raised its full-year profit outlook by nearly 10 percent, with a weaker yen a major contributor to the automaker’s improved outlook.  Cost-cutting at Toyota is also helping its bottom line.

    JPMorgan Chase (JPM) – JPMorgan received a license to underwrite corporate bonds in China, becoming the first U.S.-based bank to be granted such a license.

    Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT) – The three are among the biggest tech names filing a legal brief opposing President Donald Trump’s immigration ban, saying it inflicts “significant harm on American business.” (AMZN) – Amazon is targeting a gradual rollout of what ultimately will be 2,000 grocery stores, according to the New York Post, with projected profit margins at 22 to 40 percent.

    Comment ()
    Goldman Sachs has reportedly said that Donald Trump's economic plans present risks.

    Reuters reporting that Goldman says tax cuts and infrastructure funding may boost growth but may be offset by negative effects of restrictions on trade and immigration.

    Goldman Sachs economist Alec Phillips said the difficulty in moving forward on the Obamacare repeal doesn't bode well for reaching a quick solution on tax reform or kick staring infrastructure growth.
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    German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said if the U.S. was to introduce trade tariffs, her country would need to think about a possible reaction.

    Merkel said she favors a multilateral approach and there is no need for any action a the moment.

    German Chancellor Angela Merkel gives a press statement at the Chancellery in Berlin, Germany on December 20, 2016. Getty Images. 

    Comment ()
    Marine Le Pen, France's far-right presidential candidate, unveiled her platform Saturday, envisioning a thriving nation "made in France.

    However this guest doesn't think her Trump style rhetoric will win her the election.

    by david.reid

    Comment ()
    The euro is near low of session against dollar of 1.0705, its lowest level since 31 January when the euro traded as low as 1.0681 against the dollar.

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    European markets slipping in the last 40 minutes or so. There doesn't seem to be a precise trigger but some analysts are citing "general political uncertainty" in both the United States and Europe.

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    We haven't seen much too much analysis on market reaction to Trump's political aims or press coverage but Credit Suisse have published this yield versus favorability chart.

    Hat tip to Michael Santoli for highlighting what looks like a correlation. 

    Comment ()
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